The latest monthly report produced by the Royal Institution of Surveyors has indicated that the housing market is stabilising in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU.

The report gathers the observations of surveyors across the country, and is considered to be a good measure of confidence within the market. 

Following the referendum result, initial findings suggested a drop in prices as uncertainty amongst buyers grew. Members of the Institution are now forecasting an increase of around 3.3% a year for the next 5 years. 

One of the main factors in the predicted increase is a shortage of property for sale. Average numbers on estate agents books have been dropping over recent months, with numbers close to the record low recorded last December.

However, the recent base rate cut, record low mortgage rates and low unemployment levels, should help to boost the confidence of potential buyers over the next few years, as negotiations to leave the EU begin.

When the Bank of England decided to cut interest rates in August, the main aim was to make the cost of borrowing cheaper. A less-reported side effect is that it also helps consumers borrow slightly more.

A while ago the Prudential Regulatory Authority brought in rules to ensure that lending wasn’t purely based on the record low interest rates we’re currently enjoying. If it were, many people could find themselves in serious difficulties when interest rates eventually rise. 

When assessing affordability, lenders are required to check that the loan would still be affordable if rates increased by 3%. This is what they call the “stress rate” and will typically be 3% above the lender’s Standard Variable Rate - even if the actual deal you’re applying for is much, much lower.

Of course when the rule came in no-one expected Base Rate would in fact fall further. But that’s what’s happened and so you could borrow slightly more today, than you could in July. That’s not just theory – a number of lenders have announced reductions to their stress rates, including big names like Barclays and Nationwide.

In real terms a 0.25% reduction to the stress rate isn’t going to make a huge difference to the amount you can borrow but anything that helps buy your dream home is good news.

Saving up to buy your first home can be a challenge, but assistance is at hand in the form of the Government Help to Buy ISA.

This initiative allows a First-Time Buyer to deposit an initial £1,000, followed by £200 a month. When they decide to buy, the Government will provide a 25% bonus up to a maximum of £3,000. This means savings of £12,000 will be boosted to £15,000.

There has been some recent criticism over when the bonus can be claimed. The bonus is only available on completion rather than at exchange of contracts, when the deposit is normally paid.

Purchases can go ahead however without the need to pay the typical 10% deposit at exchange. 

The best way to avoid issues further down the line is to make sure that the solicitor is aware from the outset that a Help to Buy ISA is being used.  

First Time Buyers should certainly not be put off using a Help to Buy ISA to get their foot on the ladder. At the moment interest rates are better than on most standard savings accounts, and that 25% bonus will provide a much needed boost.

Each person can have one of these ISA’s, so those buying jointly could bump up their deposit fund significantly, and get a foot on the first rung of the property ladder a little quicker.

Most of our attention has been centred on fixed rates over recent years, as economic uncertainty grew and borrowers looked for some peace of mind.

With the Bank of England cutting the base rate to an all-time low of 0.25%, and questions being raised over the possibility of a further cut, there is now likely to be more interest in tracker mortgages.

These are variable mortgages that move up or down in line with another rate (usually the Bank of England Base Rate) and as such the monthly repayments are also variable.

The potential for another drop in monthly payments will appeal to many. Borrowers should check with their lenders however. In recent years some have applied a collar to their deals, which would prevent monthly payments from going down any further, even if base rate was to be cut again.

The variable nature of tracker mortgages mean that they will not be suitable for everyone, and many borrowers will still prefer the security of a fixed rate, especially as they are so low at the moment.

Economic News August 2016

On the 4th of August, the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee unanimously agreed to cut the base interest rate to 0.25 per cent from its already record low level of 0.5 per cent, where it had remained since March 2009. The aim of the cut is to encourage households and businesses to borrow more and to encourage banks to create more money for loans and thereby keep money flowing into the economy. However, as rates are so low, the effect may be limited. 

As the cut was announced, some major mortgage lenders, including HSBC, Santander and Nationwide agreed to pass on the cut. However, Tesco Bank raised rates on a dozen tracker loans for new customers and the Halifax has followed suit, increasing the interest rate on two-year trackers offered to borrowers with small deposits to 2.04 per cent.

At the same time as cutting the base rate, the Bank of England announced further measures to stimulate the economy, which included a new round of quantitative easing to the tune of £60 billion, as well as buying up to £10 billion of UK corporate bonds. It also set up a new £100 billion Funding for Lending-style scheme. The Bank stated that there was still scope to cut the interest rate further if the economy worsens.

The Bank’s quarterly inflation report, delivered alongside the rate decision, downgraded Britain’s future growth forecasts but maintained the 2 per cent forecast for 2016 following a better-than-expected 0.6 per cent GDP growth in the three months up to June, up from 0.4 per cent in the first quarter of the year. A further positive note was sounded when the Office for National Statistics reported that UK industrial output grew at the fastest rate for 17 years in the April to June quarter. The figures were 2.1 per cent up on the first quarter of the year.

Mixed views are being reported on the state of the housing market. According to a survey by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors, the UK housing market is continuing to slow in the wake of the Brexit vote, with a significant slowdown in price rises in the three months to the end of July. The Halifax said house prices fell by 1.0 per cent in July compared to June but the Nationwide said prices rose by 0.5 per cent. On an annual basis, the Halifax said house prices had increased by 8.4 per cent, while the Nationwide said annual house price inflation was 5.2 per cent. However, the latest House Price Index published by the Office for National Statistics affirms that UK house prices in June had increased by one per cent over May and by 8.7 per cent over the previous year; the official July figures will be released in September.

The Office for National Statistics reported that UK construction output fell in June but stated that there was ‘little anecdotal evidence’ of a Brexit impact. This contrasts with the Markit/CIPS purchasing managers' index, which suggests output in July shrank at its fastest since June 2009. 

New inflation figures were released in mid-August. The Consumer Prices Index rose from 0.5 per cent in June to 0.6 per cent in July. The main reason cited was an increase in fuel prices, which are priced in dollars and thus affected by the fall in the value of sterling. The Retail Prices Index measure of inflation also increased from 1.6 per cent in June to 1.9 per cent in July.